China vs. Taiwan

iohkus · Post by **iohkus** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 7:35 am

Well since gay people wanting to be married and Whacko Jacko seem to be the main highlights of daily news these days, a lot of people have forgotten about the growing tensions brewing between China (worlds most populated country) and Taiwan

from what I know China has sovereignty over Taiwan, even though the island has been allowed to adminster its own democratic government since 1949

basically though the current Taiwanese leader wants to ditch the "China-Tapei" in favour of just Taiwan and to gain total independence from the big mofo mainland, mebe it wants to be in the olympics as a separate nation or something?

I figured the only thing stopping China from completely pwnzizzling Taiwan was the US, but apparently the US wants nothing to do with it...

chances are that Taiwan will realize it's several billion soldiers short of standing a chance and just give up.

Already China has several hundred missiles aimed at Taiwan ready to bukake spam it at any given time:

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiap ... index.html

and further down we go...

trythebill · Post by **trythebill** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 7:42 am

i vote we go china vs. us and taiwan and get it out of the way while i'm still young and china hasn't caught up to us all the way.

iohkus · Post by **iohkus** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 7:44 am

yeah i bet a lot of people here wish it'd go that way just so we could live out fallout in person and be like "whwowoh kewl now i got a reason to get a mohawk wewt !!! i'm going to eat beans for the next 50 years. yoyoyo jimmyjay lez go raep some girliez."

trythebill · Post by **trythebill** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 7:53 am

thanks for the trite response.

it would never go large scale nuclear. it would go massive drafts and enourmous casualties but not full-out nukes. you don't win a war by destroying the world with nukes and everyone in command knows this.

iohkus · Post by **iohkus** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:02 am

trythebill wrote:thanks for the trite response.

kthxnp.

but why go high casualties when both sides would try to knock out the others capabilities with pre-emptive nuking? US wouldn't win with drafts alone, china has more soldiers than the americans have people... not true but u get my whiff... even with hardcore US military techno, China isn't exactly backwater iraqi rpg either

we'll have to wait for Menno's wisdom though?

trythebill · Post by **trythebill** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:19 am

premptive strikes may be possible but they would have unintended consquences. america never takes kindly to attacks on our soil and any such action would lead to a massive wave of armed forces recruits and the subsquent enlargement of our army into a large scale war worthy entity.

i said i hoped it happened soon only because china is pumping so much cash into it's military that very soon they will outpace us and we won't stand a chance.

you also need to remember that china still has no feasible way to move large numbers of troops with adequete protection. their navy cannot support massive carrier battle groups as of yet.

right now we are the apollo creed and china is rocky balboa. but soon we'll be rocky and china will be hulk hogan. ( the hulkster kicked rocky's ass in that one movie.)

Franz Schubert · Post by **Franz Schubert** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:30 am

trythebill wrote:it would never go large scale nuclear. it would go massive drafts and enourmous casualties but not full-out nukes. you don't win a war by destroying the world with nukes and everyone in command knows this.

Of course you don't win a war by destroying the world with nukes. You win a war by destroying the other nation with nukes *before* they destroy you. If we were in a war with China, if the U.S. thought we could launch our nukes and have them hit before China could launch theirs, we would. However, if we were in a war with China (and pray we never are) everyone is going to be monitering every inch of the planet for traces of ICBM's. As soon as radars start showing incoming missiles, they launch theirs, then BOOM apocalypse.

The thing that worries me is that the people watching radar are going to be so tense that the slightest irregularity might make them freak out and report incoming missiles.

One thing that occurred to me as a sign of the apocalypse is when the U.S. (or possibly some other nation) starts developing stealth ICBMs. I can just imagine Bush defiantly approving the development of them while the UN and Russia freak out about it.

Megatron · Post by **Megatron** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:48 am

What's the point in having nukes if you're not going to use them?

trythebill · Post by **trythebill** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:55 am

what it has always been. a deterrent and possible last ditch weapon.

Thor Kaufman · Post by **Thor Kaufman** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:12 am

iohkus wrote:yeah i bet a lot of people here wish it'd go that way just so we could live out fallout in person and be like "whwowoh kewl now i got a reason to get a mohawk wewt !!! i'm going to eat beans for the next 50 years. yoyoyo jimmyjay lez go raep some girliez."

lawl

mebbe the taiwanese will just be rendered terrorists and bombed down
and this way the chinese wouldn't have any problems with the legitimation of bombings ?!

liek omg osama is hiding in the fuhrer bunker of taiwan we must bomb it !!!

Radoteur · Post by **Radoteur** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:19 am

I doubt the Congress would be willing to support nuclear weapons designed to be used as offensive weapons. Although I could see them building a system that will make America nuke-proof.
You seem to forget that Bush is not dictator of America, just because it's said over and over and over again doesn't mean it's true.

The Gaijin · Post by **The Gaijin** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:23 am

If MacArthur couldn't nuke the Chinese, I don't see why Bush Jr. should get to.

trythebill · Post by **trythebill** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:41 am

wait, forget nukes what about reagan's star wars system?

frying the chinese army from space would be pretty sweet. unless it was like in "Spies like us" then we'd be screwed, but i'd still get to bang a russian chick in a tent in siberia.

Franz Schubert · Post by **Franz Schubert** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:09 am

LOL Star Wars...

The whole thing was ridiculous, in terms of how much money they dumped into that project even though all signs pointed to impossibility. Anyway, I'm going to ignore my troll-o-meter, which is going crazy now, and point out that the purpose was not to "fry the Russians from space", but rather to knock down ICBMs heading towards the U.S.

iohkus · Post by **iohkus** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:16 am

thor that's plausible,

the chinese secret service can create "terrorist" events against their own people since they have plent to spare, and covering it up as taiwanese sepratist attacks, thus justifying the total annihilation of the island

this has been done a lot in the past in different countries at different times, most cases though we don't know about em happening because they're SEKRET LAWL TIGHT YO

but i don't think taiwan seperating is too big a deal or enough to make china uber missile happy... i mean so what if the 22 million most well off and well educated of your people want to seperate and leave you the fuck alone?

either way, China will be the shits in 5-10 years as their standard of living continues to rocket

Radoteur · Post by **Radoteur** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:22 am

Sure, sure.
But does it rocket everywhere?

iohkus · Post by **iohkus** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:25 am

no, apparently the poor fucks who live in the boonies of china are as well off as other 3rd world nations... but slowly they'll get cell phones from nokia and then progress towards -> clean water and plumbing -> and maybe even electricty to recharge their cell phones O_O

lenin wud b proud

Menno · Post by **Menno** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:26 am

Iohkus wrote:we'll have to wait for Menno's wisdom though?

Haha, you rang grasshoppa? Nah, there's alot of guys on here with more wisdom then me (OTB for example), and many more who know more about this issue than I do.

Like Iokhus, I also noticed that this very newsworthy story has not garnered much attention from the mainstream press, after all, we need to know more about what's in Michael Jackson's room and how many nude baby photos he has. Wolfman Walt sent me the link over a week ago, and if he hadn't I probably wouldn't even have known about this situation at all.

From the military aspect, I don't think Taiwan will necessarily be a pushover, at least in it's current state. Taiwan's got plenty of missiles (of the non-nuclear variety) pointed right back at China. So China can expect to take several hits at some of their forces and/or cities. However, Taiwan's military capabilities have been deterioating over the past decade. I think the amount of China's ground forces is irrelevant as long as you can field a somewhat comparable amount, in this case, probably a little over/under 500,000 to oppose them (Taiwan currently has around 210,000 ground forces I believe), so that isn't really an issue since it's would be a defensive war for Taiwan (there have been hundreds of battles where smaller forces have defeated larger ones). I think what it comes down to is technology in this case. Currently, because of China's recent purchases of submarines and missile systems (most from Russia), Taiwan is vastly overmatched in that department. Taiwan lacks current advanced missile/naval defense systems (like the AEGIS system the United States has), and they lack a sufficient submarine force (the best way to defend against subs is by utilizing your own subs, at least from what I'm told).

Taiwan, at least currently, has a superior Air Force; whether or not it stays that way a decade from now is if the US and Taiwan keep it that way. China's military, in many aspects, is very overrated. What China instead does, and does it effectively, is utilize what's called "physcological warfare". In basic terms its more about scaring you on what they could possibly do, rather than what they could effectively do (in this case open warfare). It's why China invests most of its military spending towards submarines, information systems (such as sattelites) and specificially missile systems, for the most part GPS/Cruise/Laser-guided missiles, instead of building a practical and balanced military. Since Taiwan will be under a barrage of missile fire whereas their defense forces could be annihilated in hours, you can see how effective this policy of coercion can be.

So what it comes down to basically is this: Unless Taiwan accepts US military aid more aggressively (through the purchasing of weapon/missile systems, aircraft, and technology), and the US aggressively obliging, Taiwan will be easily defeated within under a decade. In their current shape, Taiwan will most likely still lose if China invaded, but they would do a good amount of damage to China's forces (since I'm sure guerilla warfare would be rampant). The United States (and other nations if need be) should back Taiwan's military, at the very least with a naval presence. Taiwan is a US-ally, and we owe it to our allies, whether or not it brings us into more trouble than it's worth, to defend them if called upon. The United States has made many mistakes in the past turning it's back on some of it's allies only to bite us in the ass at a later date, and we should be sure not to do so again.

The reason the US is probably quiet on this matter is because the US is actively trying to get China to help with the North Korea situation, which for the most part they're assisting (albeit at a snail's pace). If the US were to publicly denounce China's remarks and make threats, than China will probably stop helping the US out with the NK situation (and instead that would probably heat up). The thing is though, I doubt China would be willing to go for a military takeover of Taiwan. First, because they'll be condemned by the international community, probably get hit with economic sanctions, and go back to being the bastard child of the international stage; instead of being taken seriously as is China's political goal. Taiwan would be economically devestated, extremely resentful, and probably cause an arms race in the Pacific (mainly Japan), which China doesn't want. What good would do devestating Taiwan, and having to be burdened with it afterwards? The only reason I see them doing this is out of nationalistic pride (which is often enough of a reason).

So if China's crazy and as stubborn as they're blustering, than I feel we'll have a major international situation on our hands. I doubt a draft would be necessary, since our current forces (at least within a decade barring any other major war) would be enough to at least repel Chinese forces from Taiwan if it comes down to that (an invasion of China would be idiotic because it would probably cause them to launch their nukes); so we'd be doing a Gulf War scenario (kicking Saddam out of Kuwait) in the Pacific instead. But I personally think the most important player in all of this is the international community (and I don't have too much faith in them); if they're willing to stand up for Taiwan (not necessarily military-wise), then China is going to have to back down for it's own good.

EDIT: It's worth noting that many of my "facts" could be outdated since I'm operating from memory from over year and a half ago

iohkus · Post by **iohkus** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:44 am

zing
!
and thinking about it more makes it seem less likely,

and yeah to the smaller force being able to repel a larger force, i vaguely remember watching the history channel too much way back when and remember seeing Finland stopping a Soviet invasion sometime during the 2nd world war

The Finnish troops employed petrol bombs and explosives to take out tanks at close range, usually under cover of darkness. These attacks were quite effective at night, but also costly, because the cover of darkness allowed Russian infantry to move forward nearer Finnish positions, and retaliate against the exposed Finns. Still, to the dismay and chagrin of the Russians, Soviet attacks were stalled and in places thrown back with great casualties. Encirclement battles were fought along the few roads leading from the long Finnish border inland. In several of these battles, whole Soviet divisions were dominated and their equipment was captured (crucial to the otherwise ill and under-equipped Finnish armed forces).

kashluk b proud yo

since we're on the topic of country vs. country lets have some more fun k?

Turkey vs. Iran?
Pakistan vs. India?
Georgia vs. Armenia (lol)
and how bout Finland vs. Sweden for good measure

Radoteur · Post by **Radoteur** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:50 am

Google news is great.

I heard about a Georgian coup and Japanese spy sats failing through, and no where else. Of course, that's probably only because I refuse to pay for my news, and the only other news I get is from the evening news.